When Will Williamson County Housing Market Cool Off?

Housing-StoryHeader2The Williamson County housing market is hotter than the weather.

Each month this year, the price of houses or the number of houses sold have been at or near record numbers. However, housing tends to be cyclical, and eventually things will start to cool down.

The housing cycle usually runs in seven to eight year turns, David Logan, President of the Williamson County Association of REALTORS said.

“Real estate always softens. I know some people already starting to wait for it to drop back. They may watch as it grows for two or three more years. We are about six years into a good run.”

In May, that run stayed steady and median sales price for a single-family home continued at record highs, according to the monthly market report released last week by the Williamson County Association of REALTORS.

With the summer months- the time of year when median sales prices tend to peak- still ahead, the market could keep rising.

In March the market hit a record for median price, with the median sales price for a single-family home rising 5.9 percent from the same period last year. In March 2016, the median sales price for a single-family home was $433,850, compared to $409,691 in 2015. In April, records were set for volume with the total number of closed home sales for the month rising 19 percent to 474 compared to 398 in April 2015.

The median sales price rose 5.6 percent to $433,000 in May 2016 from $409,999 during the same period last year.

The market in general in 2016 is almost 10 percent hotter than it was year-to-date in record-breaking 2015, with year-to-date closings through May 2016 in Williamson County were 2,059, representing an 8.7 percent increase over the 1,894 closings for the same period last year.

Homes sales remained steady for the month of May with a total of 532 closings versus 541 closings in May 2015, which was a slight decline of 1.6 percent.

However, the market would likely be even hotter if there was more on the market, but the only limit to the market currently seems to be the limits of the area of Williamson County.

“Williamson County’s residential real estate market remains dynamic as we enter the summer selling season,” said Logan.  “The strong growth in sales price is yet another indicator of the desirability of the community among active buyers in the market. It is also very apparent that, if there was more inventory available, the number of closings would also be much higher.”

“As more businesses establish and expand their operations in Williamson County coupled with the continued strength of the public and private school systems, we anticipate the residential real estate market to continue to flourish,” said Logan.

Total available residential inventory stood at 1,827 units at the end of May 2016 indicating inventory in Williamson County remains tight at a three-and-a-half month’s supply.  A six-month supply of inventory is considered to be a balanced market.

“Although Williamson County is still facing a less than sufficient supply of inventory, listings have continued to increase month over month in 2016,” said Logan.

As demand outstrips supply, developers start looking elsewhere and communities build out. Also structural challenges become evident in the market, as affordable housing for the workforce lags.

“I am not sure how long the cycle will run up, but we are enjoying the run now,” said Logan. “I wish we had more inventory, and traffic is hurting us, lack of affordable housing for our workforce is a problem we are trying to address everywhere. Those slow things down a little bit, with no product people continue to rent. We also continue to build out, I remember talking about the mall going in at Cool Springs 25 years ago, and the development just keeps pushing out.”

He said Nolensville followed by Spring Hill are the two areas growing the quickest.

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