This is the third in a new weekly interview series. Williamson County is developing and changing at a fast pace. Like any developing area, the highs come with lows- challenges and issues that need to be addressed. Each week we will interview a leader in the community, someone who is right in the thick of things, who has some kind of power over how the county- public or private sector- is facing the future.
Last week we interviewed county mayor Rogers Anderson. This week we talked to Williamson County Association of REALTORS president David Logan. Logan has live in the county since the 1970s, and watched as the housing market has exploded and evolved.
What do you say to the person who rents here and wants to find a home, but can’t?
First of all, rents are so high right now in Will Co, really all mid- Tennessee, but especially here. That we have such low interest rates right now, they really can buy something cheaper than they can rent. And they can buy something pretty nice. They will need to have some down payment money saved up, and decent credit, but they can ask the seller to pay closing costs, and they can get something cheaper than they can rent.
The problem is finding inventory. We just do not have much inventory for what we call our workforce housing, People making $50,000 to $75,000 a year. The market just does does not have a lot of houses in the $200,000 to $400,000 range. Now, that does not mean that it is not there, just that there is not much. So if you are going to be serious about buying a house in that range, you have to jump on it. They do not sit on the market for more than a few days. Get out there and look as quick as you can.
What is available, and what do people want- and how do the two line up?
We have got some crazy dynamics going on that are all pointing to a slow down. The recent drop in the housing market is all about inventory. Like I said, the kinds of houses available, mostly in the $600,000-and-up range, differ from what people want, which are houses in the $250,000-to-$400,000 range. Of active listings, the median price is about $600,000. The median price of a house just sold or pending is $400,000. A healthy market will have about a six month supply of houses at current demand. The Williamson County market has maybe a two-month supply. This is because there is a double demand.
On the one hand you have expanding families, looking for $350,000 to $450,000 homes. And on the other hand you have older people, whose kids might have left home, realizing keeping a 4,000 square-foot home makes no sense. So they look to downsize to reduce maintenance and maybe use the money to buy a vacation home or a lake house somewhere.
Why is the market so thin on houses in that price range- this workforce housing?
Those types of houses are not being built. Land is so expensive here, that developers almost have to build $800,000 to $1 million homes for it to be worth the investment. Price of a lot dicates the price the house is going to be for the builder to make a profit. When land costs and lot costs are high- and every day it seems like the cities are adding impact fees and all this stuff, making land more expensive to build on.
And the expensive houses are still selling because you have major corporations relocating to here, like the Schneider Electric USA news, and other business growth- jobs.
Where is growth going from here?
The sprawl starts at those place where land is cheap until it drives it up then it moves again. Nolensville is latest, but probably the last example. Forever and ever land was cheap there, and it was in that piece of pie shape, between I-65 and I-24 extending south where new growth always pushes out first, because it is in a prime location with access to highways and the metro area. And with 231 going right through it, cutting the pie in half . . it was the obvious that was the place where growth was going to happen next, and now prices have come up to be competitive with stuff around Brentwood and Cool Springs. So now they are building schools, offices space, etcetera. So it’s like, OK, that pie got filled in, whats next? You just have to look at land price.
Right now, I think one of the best places in Williamson County to look for future growth is Fairview. Houses are still pretty cheap there, and people are starting to look it over. Hey, they say, it’s not so far, and 840 connects us pretty quick to everything else. People are going to say, well, Fairview is getting expensive, maybe we will start developing in Dickson. It just keeps going, sprawling out and out. Unless . . .
So what is so bad about sprawl? Can we stop it?
It is a double edged sword. I remember in Brentwood when they were building the apartments behind Kroger, the people were just screaming, because, oh no, it is going to increase traffic in our area. So that is their thinking and their argument against higher density. [In Brentwood, the average density is about an acre per house].
But if people can live close to work, say work in Maryland Farms, sure they will still drive to work and in a way traffic will increase. But it is just a five minute drive, it is a different kind of traffic than the guy making the hour long drive back and forth from Gallatin. I-65, the interstates, that is where the sprawl adds traffic too, and the major arterials. Everyone says more people creates more traffic, well that is true, but there is some traffic that is bad, and then other traffic that is really bad. The people out in Goose Creek, Spring Hill, and even as far south as Columbia. Those people are on the road a lot more, being traffic a lot more.
So, what, density needs to change?
All over Green Hills they are tearing down one house and putting up two or three. It is going on everywhere. It is rampant. But a few years ago, Green Hills was a lot like Brentwood- you were never going to get them to increase density. But in Green Hills I just saw a developer who bought a $400,000 property. He knocked the house down and built two $900,000 homes and they sold almost instantly
Williamson County as a whole has not allowed it, Brentwood has not allowed it, but I think that is where you are going to start seeing that kind of stuff, and get a lot of pressure to change density. Longterm, you would see an explosion of growth on the housing market if you changed density, and I’ll tell you traffic would not get any worse in the grand scheme. Especially if people are working close to where the live- which is why I say Brentwood, because of its vicinity to a lot of employers.
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