HSH.com has updated its “Home Price Recovery Index”, where six more markets have now attained or surpassed boom-era price peaks.
HSH.com’s “Home Price Recovery Index” uses the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s (FHFA) Home Price Index as a basis to determine which housing markets have fully recovered (or more) any loss in value from the housing market bust of the last decade and the first part of this one. The update covers home values in the largest 100 metropolitan areas from 1991 to the second quarter of 2018.
With this update, 6 new markets join the ranks of those that have recovered:
• Detroit-Dearborn-Livonia, MI (MSAD)
• Jacksonville, FL
• Nassau County-Suffolk County, NY (MSAD)
• New York-Jersey City-White Plains, NY-NJ (MSAD)
• Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ
• Worcester, MA-CT
70 of the nation’s 100 largest metro areas have returned to or surpassed boom-era peaks for values; three years ago this number was only 39. However, as some economists are predicting that the next recession may begin in less than two years, there may be metro areas where some homeowners may not see their home value re-attain the original purchase price before the next downturn hits.
Areas that have recovered the most. Percent now above previous price peak.
1. Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO 85.86%
2. Dallas-Plano-Irving, TX (MSAD) 68.24%
3. Austin-Round Rock, TX 67.70%
Areas with largest recovery gaps yet Percent needed to regain peak
1. Bakersfield, CA 27.83%
2. Camden, NJ (MSAD) 21.35%
3. Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL 19.74%
It is important to note that many markets have seen significant price recoveries since hitting their bottom values but that many have still not attained full recovery of lost value. In fact, there are four metros areas where this is the case despite a doubling of “bust era” bottom home values.
• The Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ metro has now reached recovery. This is a market in one of the so-called “sand states” that was among the hardest hit in the downturn; the area’s decline in home values from a 2Q06 peak was more than 52% and at 12 years, recovery has been a long time in the works.
• Five more markets fall into our “nearly recovered” group, where values are within a percentage point or two of previous highs. These include metros in California, Rhode Island, Texas, Florida and New Mexico.
• Even as they challenge homebuyers, rising prices continue to improve the fortunes of homeowners. Double-digit increase in annual values were seen in 11 metros and there were a sizable number of markets with high single-digit gains as well. In some markets, the improvement is more stark than others, but prices continue to firm in almost all markets.
Homeowners interested in seeing how their home’s value has changed over time are encouraged to use our HSH.com’s free “Home Value Estimator” tool. The tool allows users to select their market from 100 metropolitan areas and enter the time frame in which they’ve owned their home; the tool reveals changes in the home’s value during this ownership period and provides a current estimate based on home price trends in the selected metro area.
HSH.com® is the nation’s largest publisher of mortgage and consumer loan information. Every week, for over 30 years, we collect current data from mortgage lenders coast to coast. Every institution in our database is contacted directly, branch by branch, to obtain reliable data. Rigorous quality control procedures ensure that the data are believable.