California Chrome won the 140th running of the Kentucky Derby this past Saturday at Churchill Downs and now everybody now wants a Triple Crown winner.
In the weeks leading up to the Derby, many predicted California Chrome to win by a large margin, and he didn’t disappoint as he won by 1 ¾ lengths.
But people are getting swirled into the emotions that California Chrome could end the 36-year drought of not having a Triple Crown winner.
What a ridiculous comment to make considering Affirmed was the last to accomplish the feat in 1978. That wrapped up a miraculous six year run where Secretariat did it in 1973 and Seattle Slew won all three in 1977. Only eight other thoroughbreds have accomplished the feat since the Derby began in 1875.
And people expect California Chrome to join that world class list.
History repeats itself, but recent history tells us that California Chrome has a good shot at winning the Preakness, but not the Belmont.
Since the Triple Crown was termed in 1930, 20 horses won the first two legs of the Triple Crown, but lost the Belmont. It has happened a staggering eight times since 1997
Remember the names Silver Charm (1997), Charismatic (1998) Real Quiet (1999), War Emblem (2002), Funny Cide (2003), Smarty Jones (2004), and Big Brown (2008)? Most recently I’ll Have Another did it in 2012.
Why win the first two, but not the last? Perhaps that’s because the Derby and the Preakness are similar distances. The Derby is 1 1/4 mile while the Preakness is 1 3/16 mile.
Meanwhile, the Belmont is a quarter of a mile longer than the Derby at 1 2/4 mile. A quarter of a mile doesn’t seem like a lot but that’s quite a bit of a distance when the colt isn’t used to running races as long as the Belmont.
For starters, California Chrome just ran the longest race of his career at the Derby. His previous longest was 1 1/8 mile. The colt also enjoyed four weeks to rest between his previous two races and before that he had an average of five to six weeks off between races.
However, California Chrome only has two weeks off between the Derby and the Preakness, and three weeks off between the Preakness and the Belmont.
Not easy, huh? California Chrome has as good of a shot as any horse in the past 17 years to win the Triple Crown, but he will become another statistic.
While it appears I’m bashing the colt, I’m not, as a Louisville native, and current resident, I’m dreaming of the day that a Triple Crown winner is crowned. I have never witnessed the feat and I’m 26.
California Chrome could fulfill my dreams, but it’s unlikely. The Colt will win the Preakness, but the Belmont will exhaust him, and he becomes the ninth thoroughbred in the past 17 years to win the first two legs, but lose the last.
And we will all groan, maybe next year.
